August 31, 2025 | By the time of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the bond market was virtually convinced of cuts coming in September -- and the Fed chair delivered saying that “downside risks to employment are rising” and that “a reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short lived” . . .
July 31, 2025 | This month, the combination of tame inflation and constructive labor reports gave reason for the Fed to wait longer on cutting rates and categorizing policy as being “modestly restrictive” . . .
June 30, 2025 | The US treasury bond rallied steadily for most of the month as the market grew even less concerned about tariffs and more concerned about the decelerating labor, repeated calls from the White House to cut rates and the 12-Day War in the Middle East . . .
May 31, 2025 | Inflation reports on consumer and producer prices were lower than feared, but real rates on the treasury curve rose noticeably after Moody’s downgraded US treasury debt to Aa1 . . .
April 30, 2025 | The bond market’s concerned mood last month was quickly affirmed this month (April 2nd) when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” plans to impose universal 10% tariffs on all imports . . .
March 31, 2025 | The mood of the bond markets continued to show concerns over the risks of rising inflation and corporate earnings disruptions from upcoming tariffs . . .
February 28, 2025 | The mood of the bond market coming into the month had shifted to become less focused on the risk of cooling labor markets (the reason for the cumulative cuts late last year) to being more focused on rising inflation from tariffs . . .
February 13, 2025 | Whether it’s subordinated bank debt, corporate hybrids or subordinated insurance debt, portfolios that own this paper should expect to get an income boost once the call terms arrive . . .
January 31, 2025 | The Fed must deal with a very challenging and continuing pricing conflict between trillions in excess fiscal spending (i.e., ongoing UST debt issuance) not being aligned with its low inflation goal; and now the risks of import tariffs elevating inflation are making traders scared again . . .
January 27, 2025 | Elevated-yields-for-longer are expected for US Treasury securities that should foster meaningful hybrid-income-pushups-for-longer too, therefore, impelling rising book yields . . .
December 31, 2024 | The US Treasury bond began the month with some follow-through on breaking a 4 standard deviation long price decline from early September, but the rally reversed course when it began to sense a more hawkish Fed later in the month . . .
November 30, 2024 | The Fed must deal with a very challenging and continuing pricing conflict between excess fiscal spending (i.e., ongoing UST debt issuance) not being aligned with its goal and now the risks of import tariffs pushing prices to recapture some tariff cost . . .
October 31, 2024 | After having been exuberantly fixated on any news that favored rate cuts and having bullied the Fed into cutting rates by 50bps, the market quickly reversed course when labor markets pivoted with strength and inflation wouldn’t go away . . .
September 30, 2024 | The US Treasury bond market rallied strongly right into the very important (and greatly anticipated) mid-month Federal Reserve policy meeting where the federal funds rate was cut by 50bps after a 14-month pause . . .
August 31, 2024 | There is no question that the Fed’s dual mandate to manage a balance of risks between labor and inflation is shifting more to the labor side of the challenge, though inflation is still higher than the Fed would like it to be . . .
July 31, 2024 | The concerns over conflicting signals between some cooling in the economy and sticky inflation began to wear off as signs of labor market weakness came into focus . . .
June 30, 2024 | The theme for the street was a general deceleration in the speed of expectations for cuts, which basically took July off the table and delayed cuts until November . . .
May 31, 2024 | Disinflation confidence waned with comments such as, “It looks like it will take longer for us to become confident that inflation is coming down to 2% over time,” according to Chairman Powell . . .
April 30, 2024 | The US Treasury bond slid in April amid hotter than expected consumer inflation data which caused policymakers to doubt their confidence in the disinflationary trend especially given the ongoing strength in financial conditions . . .
March 31, 2024 | The US Treasury bond market was faced with more sobering inflation data this month which is becoming an ongoing concern to those who were hoping for rate cuts to be fast and furious . . .
February 29, 2024 | We continue to emphasize that the Fed and markets must deal with a very challenging pricing conflict created by ongoing excess fiscal spending (i.e., ongoing UST debt issuance) not being aligned with the Fed’s desire to gain confidence in its disinflationary goal . . .
January 31, 2024 | Chairman Powell has put emphasis on being “confident” on inflation, but the committee is “not there yet” and said, “March isn’t the base case” . . .
